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Whatever I am doing, I am thinking about something else.  The exceptions to this rule are activities involving gravity and/or lots of speed and therefore an increased risk to my health.  Hearing the wind racing past tends to clear the mind…  Generally my thoughts revolve around trying to solve a problem, or answer a question, perhaps expand a theory.  Sometimes these are work related, but more often they are broader topics.  Currently there is a lot of news of the doom and gloom sort surrounding the US economy and so this is what keeps running around in my head…

Assumptions:

1.      The credit crisis will get worse, foreclosures will continue to rise, the housing market is critically oversupplied and will not correct itself without far reaching repercussions.

2.      The US dollar is weak and will continue to fall, the Asian markets that own a lot of the US dept will at some point want to liquidate their holdings creating a run on the dollar.

3.      We are going to experience a major recession and rebalancing of US consumption and economic values in the next 10 years.

Questions:

1.      What new product or services could be started now which would be valuable during an impending recession?

2.      How can you use current trends in technology or web development to solve problems that will be faced by individuals and families during financial crisis?

3.      What is the best way to position yourself for success during a US lead world recession? (financially, career, geographically)

Ideas:

1.      Buy property.

a.       Land ownership has been the basis for economies and social structures since mankind stopped being hunter-gatherers and started raising crops.  Leasing or renting houses/land to laborers would provide a steady and fairly stable source of income so long as you own the property outright.  Using loans to finance property purchases increases the risk, but could be sustainable so long as the loan payments were suitably lower than the market rate for leasing the property to allow for market adjustments in demand.

b.      Unplug from the economic system by starting a self sustaining farm.  Ownership of the land is critical as it would allow for growth to be determined by your needs and not the needs of the customer.  Some export of goods could potentially be sustained to local consumers as long as the sustainability of the farm was not diminished.

2.      Web services portal for tools, forms, FAQs, and services required by people when in financial trouble.  While these sites exist there is a lot of room for improvement and ways to add value left in the market.  (I haven’t really been able to wrap my head around what would work best in the web/tech space)

3.      Move to Chile.  Well that’s my idea anyway, the broader concept would be to relocate to an area which will be less effected or even prosper from a weak US economy.  European countries wouldn’t be immune to the negative effects of a US recession, but smaller less developed nations, whose economies aren’t pinned to the dollar, and whose exports aren’t solely to the US would continue to experience mild growth.  I don’t fully understand the complexities of a post ‘dollar as the standard’ world, but from what I gather China and Japan would experience large financial investments as banks moved away from US based assets, and might be the best place to be.  I’m thinking Chile because I could ski, surf, and drink a lot of local wine (which still grow on original root stock).

4.      Move your assets and investments into foreign currencies and stocks.  Ok, so actually picking up and moving might be too much for most people, but there is going to be a lot of opportunity for financial growth that your money could take advantage of even if you aren’t there.

Right now my thoughts are exploring how to employ web/tech to solve problems created by a recession, or provide services to those in need.  There is a train of though which involves providing human services to people needing financial advice, relocation, employment, or training to acquire the needed skills for future employment.  These services might be more assistance in using web/tech tools, but might also involve some development to simplify the user experience in an effort to deliver the tool/service directly.  The financials of this type of business venture are harder for me to visualize, and might border on being supported by federal programs, something I really don’t understand from a process standpoint and fundamentally disagree with in the abstract.

Anyway… just thought I’d share…

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